Tuesday, 30 November 2021

Trolley 449

Captured somewhere a bit further along the High Street, in the walkway leading through to Ebbisham Square and the library building. One of the food shacks there visible left. Shacks which look as if, during the day at least, they cater for the food delivery men (and women) that gather there. Handy for McDonald's, amongst other places.

Wheeled along to Kiln Lane, where the Sainsbury's car park was fairly full at around 16:00, while the small trolley stack outside the front door, where I put this one, was running dangerously low. Customers might have had to look around the car park for one.

Can't see me doing 51 in the run up to the end of the year, certainly not with half the exercise days being allocated to bicycle.

References

Reference 1: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2021/11/trolley-448.html.

Trolley 448

Captured on the north side of the market place, just by where Cafe Rouge used to be and where a Turkish restaurant has just opened. A child of 'Cappadocia' in the Kingston up the road and visible to the left of the snap above. Website at reference 2, not yet updated to include the new member of the family. Perhaps it has to earn its spurs first.

Returned to the M&S Food Hall on the other side of the market.

References

Reference 1: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2021/11/trolley-447.html.

Reference 2: https://www.cappadociakingston.co.uk/.

There's hope yet

Passed a vehicle from a company that likes to have branded registration plates on its vehicles. Don't know if it is up there with FLR, noticed at, for example, reference 1, but in any event, it is good news. Maybe they will run to the elusive No.36. Sadly, their HQ is in Orpington, so I am unlikely to have a credible excuse to visit - visits for the purpose of checking number plates having been firmly stamped on by the rules committee.

Later on, I passed a number of plates in the thirties, forties and fifties, but not the one in question. But I did get a useful six feet length of two by one batten which will no doubt come in useful for something. Just the five nails to remove.

PS: our government seems to have picked an odd time to be flogging off a vaccine manufacturing facility near Oxford, nearing completion after a 2018 start, having spent some £200m on it. One might have thought that this was just the sort of thing we wanted to have in reserve, under our own control. The sovereignty they bang on so much about in the context of Brexit. Not something to flog off to some private equity operation, mainly funded by foreign money with little interest in our health and well being. Is one of our fat leader's mates from his Oxford days involved...

References

Reference 1: https://psmv4.blogspot.com/2021/03/no30.html.

Reference 2: https://www.spyalarms.co.uk/.

Reference 3: https://www.vmicuk.com/. 'The UK's first dedicated vaccine manufacturing and innovation centre. Leading a new era in vaccine development, to protect and improve lives in the UK and beyond'.

Irritation

I was a bit irritated yesterday by the Evening Standard (Monday, 29th November) showcasing two young Londoners who are having a lot of trouble getting work. This appeared to be a big part of what the Evening Standard was pleased to call a special investigation.

So two chaps, both of whom personnel people from caring employers who really do try to look after their employees, might well describe as 'hard to place'. Does it help us to know about just two of the 100,000 or more young Londoners who are out of work, perhaps pulled from outside a Job Centre or from inside a public house? Does it help them to be showcased in this way? I can imagine that, if you were 'special needs' rather than 'hard to place', it might well do more harm that good.

The good news is that that chap snapped above did land an apprenticeship after this 'investigation'. The other one was not so successful with his two interviews.

Monday, 29 November 2021

More sheep

Just over a week ago, it felt that it was time for a Sunday roast again, after something of a gap. As far as I can tell from the record, the last one was roast chicken, back to the second half of August, noticed at reference 4. A long time ago - although there were at least two roast oxtails and one go at Spanish pig since then. Not exactly Sunday roasts, but tendencies in that direction. And if we disqualify the second half of August on account of the absence of proper photographic record, we have to go back to pork at the end of July, noticed in the first half of August at reference 1.

Shoulder of lamb on the present occasion, which weighed in at almost exactly 5lbs, so rather smaller than they have been of late, that is to say around 6lbs. After some palaver we decided on 2 hours 30 minutes in an oven pre-heated to 180°C, including resting.

Taken with mash, cabbage, roast parsnip and gravy. The gravy made with the stock from the oxtail noticed at reference 2. Despite all these attractions, BH had to make a bit of an effort to wean one of the party off her carrot sticks.

The gravy was made by frying up a bit of flour in cooking oil, then adding the jelly and mashed potato from the oxtail event, plus a little water. Plus a little more water which had been stirred into the bottom of the roasting pan to pick up some of the goodies there. All simmered up together to produce a mid brown, reasonably thick gravy. Some sieving. Very good it was too.

The scene at forks down. The meat was a little damp and a little cool to my taste and I think I would have liked it better had it been rested in the oven, rather than under a cloth on the kitchen table. But the others seemed to think it was fine.

Washed down with one of the bottles of Chardonnay taken from Nicolas on the occasion noticed at reference 3. I can't find the producer, but there are plenty of dinky wine shops which sell it: 'The Chardonnay grapes for this floral, juicy and well rounded wine come from the actual village of Chardonnay, where the monks of Cluny started making wine in the 16th century'. We rather liked it.

In fact, it is one of those wines about which there seems to be a conspiracy of silence. The place on the bottle, La Chapelle-de-Guinchay, certainly exists and it is in the right part of France, a little to the south of Mâcon, snapped above. But it is not that near Chardonnay, about the same distance to the north of Mâcon. And neither Bing nor Google admit to a suitable producer. Is it just a brand name used by the local co-op of small producers?

For dessert what I think was a blackberry and apple sponge pudding, slightly damaged due a topping out event in the top oven, to where it had been displaced on account of the shoulder below. While top right was more interested in yellow pot custard with sprinkles and was not inclined to wait.

Most of what remained of the lamb well down well, with much the same accompaniments, a day or so following. All complaints about needing a bit more cooking having faded away. And what remained of the gravy did very well too. Odds and ends of meat snacked a few hours later. Odds and ends of fat put out for the birds. I can't remember whether the crows or magpies got there first - while the cats don't seem to bother. Even to chase the crows and magpies.

PS: returned to the charge Tuesday morning. No trace of either 'enracines' or 'enracinés' in any of the blogs or the blog archive. Never being very sure about the what has happened in the past or happens now about accents. Further search online turns up reference 5 which appears to be a Canadian farm shop with extra services - based at a place called Saint-Gabriel-de-Brandon maybe 50km north of Montreal. Then asking Google for 'enracinés vin' hits the jackpot with reference 6, an association of nine domains spanning both the Bordeaux and Burgundy wine growing areas, with 'Les Enracinés' being one of them. Presumably the association offers the member domains various central facilities and services. One of which looks to be selling the wine of their members into Japan. Next time I am in that branch of Nicolas I shall have to ask about them: the sort of counter hands who might actually know.

Reference 1: https://psmv4.blogspot.com/2021/08/a-festival-of-pork.html.

Reference 2: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2021/11/second-oxtail-of-2021-2022-season.html.

Reference 3: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2021/11/turk-out-of-czech.html.

Reference 4: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2021/09/camera-free-chicken.html.

Reference 5: https://enracines.ca/.

Reference 6: https://www.terroirs-et-talents.fr/en/domaines/les-enracines/.

Reference 7: https://www.terroirs-et-talents.fr/.

Cold frosty morning

At around 08:00 this Monday morning, we had a sharp looking frost on the flat roofs of the extension and garage, on the hedges to each side, on the back lawn and on the rotary washing line. A full house.

On the other hand, no birds to be seen or heard. Is it time to crack out the bird feeder?

Hot water for bath not so hot, there seeming to be some interaction between the hot water system and the heating system, despite the controls and times being separated.

Cortana on my laptop is reporting -1°C, having hovered a little above zero for some time. Still is at 09:00.

Celebrated the start of winter with the first porridge of the season, taken with brown sugar.

Sunday, 28 November 2021

Turk out of Czech

A week or so ago, back to the Kibele in Great Portland Street for a spot of Turkish. Mainly served, as it happens, by a young lady from the Czech republic who was learning Spanish so that she could work the Spanish seaside resorts. She also claimed that the splitting up of Czechoslovakia was entirely peaceful and the two halves remaining good friends. Sadly I didn't manage to bring Simenon's villains from what was then the backwoods of eastern Czechoslovakia into the conversation. 'Maigret et son Mort': I can't remember whether the evil Slovakians feature both in text and on screen, but they certainly do feature in the Atkinson version.

While the building above, snapped just across the road from Great Portland Street would have done very well as the block of flats inhabited by Poirot on ITV3. Known there, I think, as Whitehaven Mansions. While this block has not been improved by what I take to be modern changes: the front doors, the canopy and the black-head poles.

But I get ahead of myself.

Journey to London started with a large lady of middle years, probably of scant education, with music blasting out of her telephone. Eventually she got the ear plugs under control and the music dropped down from blast to burble, which I could cope with. No mask. I wondered whether she was a care worker or something of that sort.

I then wondered about the number of flats that have been built along the railway by Vauxhall in the last the last ten years. Thousands of them? How many of them affordable? Maybe one day I will get around to inquiring.

Bought my cheese and pushed onto Great Portland Street with much less bother than on the occasion noticed at reference 1. Being a little early, time to investigate the church opposite the tube station, the Holy Trinity of reference 2.

Walked right around, finding no open doors, but I did find some leaves which would have done very well for a three year old, had I had one with me. And among all the stalls scattered across what was once the front steps, I found a young lady who explained that it was now an event space. But, sadly, she did not run to letting me in when I observed that the lights were on.

I learned later, this afternoon in fact, that this handsome, Grade I listed building, was built to celebrate the Battle of Waterloo. Presumably by way of a thank you to the Almighty for putting his thumb in the right scale pan. But congregations dwindled and the place became a book warehouse in the 1930's, not much more than a hundred years later. I suppose no-one can work out what to do with it. Would it not be more dignified just to demolish it?

Next stop the Green Man over the road, which we used to visit on Saturday nights when we were students, a little more than fifty years ago now. This turned out to be quite a good line with the barman, who explained that there was a function room downstairs which had been quite a place in its day. Visited by the likes of Mick Jagger. Talk of downstairs brought a lot more memories back, which had been obscured by the completely unfamiliar ground floor bar. Now owned by Greene King.

And so onto the Kibele. Where humus was much improved by the omission of sausage on top. Oddly, considering that the waitress asked if we wanted sausage or not, the sausage had clearly been removed from our humus just before it arrived. Followed in my case by chicken wings, rice and salad. Wings very good, much bigger than the wings we get on chickens. Rice very good too. Salad only marred by a touch too much beetroot and a touch too much dressing. All washed down with a spot of their Turkish wine and a spot of their French Calvados, served as usual in a big glass balanced on a mug of very hot water. All very good. Too full for apple crumble or rice pudding - although for some reason, I am keen to try the latter. Something we hardly ever eat at home, despite it having once been a regular item.

Plus I notice from gmaps that there is a place called the Istanbul café and bistro in the same building at the tube station. Complete with traditional Turkish burgers. Perhaps a place for next time. See reference 4.

Heading off towards Oxford Circus, I passed the synagogue, not very encouraging to visitors. It was Friday, so not a good day, but I don't suppose other days would have been any better. Understandable, but a pity all the same.

Next stop Nicolas, where I took a couple of bottles of something white and French. After that we had the people called Tank. All very hip, but Bing seems unsure whether they are a magazine or a photographic agency. Or perhaps both. I have not studied reference 5 carefully enough to find out.

I was reminded that the buildings occupying the four corners of Oxford Circus are really quite flashy, the shops presently below notwithstanding.

Tube to Vauxhall. Train to Earlsfield. Decided against the Half Way House, but failed at the aeroplane game. Nothing at all. Changed again at Raynes Park where I got a modest haul of books from the platform library, amongst which we had a couple of slim books in Maltese - a first - and the book already noticed at reference 6.

I might add that I have now read the associated thriller from 1982, 'A very British coup', which I did manage, but I did find a bit tiresome. Perhaps it was dated? Perhaps it had all been done elsewhere, too many times since? I decided that we probably had seen the television drama that someone had turned it into at some point in the intervening 40 years. Also that Mullins had a pretty fair idea about how Ministers' offices were organised here in the UK. Also that plenty of people have, over the years, suspected the (extensive) forces of the right and the forces of the security services of playing a rather dirty game at times. Indeed, my understanding was these last were told by the then prime minister, one Margaret Thatcher, to rough up, as it were, the leaders of the miners' strike. Which apart from being quite wrong, was quite unnecessary, given that the miners had chosen their time so badly. On the other hand, I also believe that having people at the centre who can tweak things a bit is a part of the democratic balancing act. One would not want, after all, a deranged Trump to start a war because it looked as if someone was going to publish his tax returns. Or some happy snaps he had taken in a rare moment of weakness.

Arrived at Epsom, I opted for TB rather than the Marquis. Perhaps because it was not so far to walk after. And on the way, ladies football on the all weather pitch at Court Recreation Ground.

No Yellowtail at TB, so I had to settle for Sauvignon Blanc. With the snap above being the bar where I had spent many happy hours in the olden days. Touched up just a little since then. And for those who want it, it looked as if there was warm beer of a sort on offer, not that it looked as if there was likely to be that much demand for it, it having become a bar for young people who don't have much of a taste for that sort of thing.

Our fine new road surface. I think I only had to get out of the road the once.

References

Reference 1: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2021/09/hafod.html.

Reference 2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holy_Trinity_Church,_Marylebone.

Reference 3: https://kibelerestaurant.co.uk/.

Reference 4: https://bistroistanbul.com/.

Reference 5: http://tankform.com/.

Reference 6: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2021/11/a-mullin.html.

Wet markets

This prompted by an article in the MIT Technology Review, reference 1, written around a paper written by a scientist who had worried about bio-security in the Wuhan Institute of Virology. He seems to be a wet market man now and has written up his thoughts at reference 2.

Item 1, it seems that animal markets in China can be rather unpleasant places by our standards, with lots of live animals being held in rather unpleasant condition and being sold for human consumption. China, in the wake of the SARS outbreak, introduced fierce laws about this sort of thing, but they were only weakly enforced. One unintended consequence of which was that live animal vendors at the market concerned who had any information or evidence vanished, rather than talk to the authorities.

Item 2, once again, it is encouraging to see that China has just the same sort of machinery for fighting infectious diseases as is deployed in the West. Much the same science and much the same bureaucracy. No doubt there are some areas that they are good at, and some areas that they are not so good at. Just as there are here. But knowing that they are really quite like us all helps to build relationships.

PS: no doubt Worobey is now to be found on Past President Trump's hit list of subversive pinkos to be dealt with when he is re-elected.

References

Reference 1a: This scientist now believes covid started in Wuhan’s wet market. Here’s why: How a veteran virologist found fresh evidence to back up the theory that covid jumped from animals to humans in a notorious Chinese market - rather than emerged from a lab leak - Jane Qiu, MIT Technology Review - 2021.

Reference 1b: https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/11/19/1040390/covid-wuhan-natural-spillover-wuhan-wet-market-huanan.

Reference 2a: Dissecting the early COVID-19 cases in Wuhan - Michael Worobey, Science - 2021.

Reference 2b: https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.abm4454. This might be free, but beware: lots of stuff in this magazine is not free. 

Reference 3: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_raccoon_dog. A possible vector. The source of the snap above. This particular one from the Ukraine. About the size of a dog; eaten by wolves, eagles and, in the Far East, humans.


Nilgai

A visit to the Niglai of Hobbledown this morning, Hobbledown being what the home farm attached to one of the Epsom cluster of hospitals has become. Looked like deer without antlers to me, but the trusty Burton says antelope. Also that they stand 2 feet high at the shoulder, rather less than most of those here. Also that Hindus think they are enough like cows for eating to be forbidden.

While Wikipedia goes for 4 feet at the shoulder, says that the name means blue cow and that their backs slope down from the shoulder to the rump, which does not seem to be the case here. Does not go in for the 'ny' spelling favoured by Burton. 

At all events, a popular choice for 'N' in the alphabet game played for mammals.

Plenty of people on Horton Country Park at around 10:30. A large herd of runners, just finished. Lots of dog walkers. Lots of people just out for a stroll. And the market has caught up, as we also had a coffee van which seemed to be doing a stready trade.

Mystery to me, not ever having been much into coffee, outside of restaurants after a meal.

Small birds almost absent. Large birds not plentiful, but some parakeets, crows, magpies and pigeons. Just the one blackbird.

References

Reference 1: https://www.hobbledown.com/.

Reference 2: Systematic dictionary of the mammals of the world - Maurice Burton - 1962.

Reference 3: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nilgai.


Saturday, 27 November 2021

Audley again

We first came across Audley Retirement - a swanky version of the McCarthy & Stone whom we have here in Epsom, opposite my dentist and handy for town centre - last March, and noticed at reference 1. Or rather they came across us by pushing a flyer through our letter box. This lunchtime we had another exclusive offer from them: a modest £800,000 plus sundries plus (probably variable) annual service charge for a two bedroom flat in Cobham, a few yards from the A3. It appears to be no more than a building site in Google satellite view, but to be fair to them, the houses round about look pretty expensive. 

A proposition I find puzzling. Why would I swap a house which is convenient for Epsom and what it has to offer for a flat in the middle of nowhere? Why would I not go to the much cheaper and more convenient McCarthy & Stone and collect half the dosh? Or the new Abbeyfield village in Ewell? I am clearly not made of the right stuff as otherwise I would have a better grasp of what it is that they at.

But not so puzzling that we will take up their offer of a free mince pie and a £30 voucher from John Lewis if we turn up for a sales pitch.

References 

Reference 1: https://psmv4.blogspot.com/2021/03/another-audley-end.html.

Reference 2: https://www.audleyvillages.co.uk/our-villages/fairmile.

Stop press

I read in my Bloomberg's feed this morning of an interesting new contract that has been let by UK Border Force to an obscure company headquartered in the Cayman Islands and seemingly in the pocket of one Harry Poynter; a contract to supply ten gunboats by the end of December for deployment off the white cliffs of Dover. The contract was let under immigration emergency regulations nodded through at the end of October, on the recommendation of Lady Lichen, currently Parliamentary Under Secretary of State and Minister for Agricultural Innovation and Climate Adaptation, who bought her title with sustained donations to the Conservative Party of around £250,000 a year. It seems that Lady Lichen has been conducting a long term, not to say life time, relationship with Mr. Poynter, but they prefer not to mix their private and public interests. However, it is understood that she buys her hair care products from Leonor Greyl and rides to hounds whenever her various duties permit.

UK Border Force was unable to say how many millions the contract ran to.

But it has leaked out that Mr. Poynter is buying up German made inflatables at French police auctions and is fitting them out with army surplus tanks. Army surplus in the sense that the necessary budget to take them for outings has been cut out of the estimates.

He is subcontracting the crewing of these gunboats to Group Four, who will use staff redeployed from a detention centre that had to be closed rather suddenly, and it hoped that the first boat of the fleet will be on sea trials on Rutland Water before the middle of December. More usually the locale for paddle boarding organised by another of Mr. Poynter's companies.

Just to be on the safe side, he is sourcing special snorkels from Plasan of reference 5. Tested by crossing the Red Sea and much better than the German originals from the Second World War.

Management and command structures will be finalised over the next few days, but it is likely that Group Four will supply a Rear Admiral who will report directly to the Chief of the Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, KCB ADC. Conveniently for present purposes, a Navy man.

References

Reference 1: https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/border-force. The punter.

Reference 2: https://www.bloomberg.com/europe. The feed.

Reference 3: https://www.g4s.com/en-gb. The subbie.

Reference 4: https://www.leonorgreyl.com/en/english/. The look younger potions.

Reference 5: https://www.plasan.com/. The snorkels - and a glitzy website.

Friday, 26 November 2021

More Duplo

Following the visit last noticed at reference 1, BH had occasion to visit the Barnardo's shop at Horton Retail this morning and noticed a large box of Duplo, stuff which she used to cost at £2 a piece new, and that was some years ago.

Wasn't convenient for her to take it there and then, so I was sent out later in the day, having been warned off cycling there, as I had at first thought. So for £30 I got a large box of mixed Duplo, plus various other stuff, including more fake Duplo, some of which will probably be kept. The lady there judged me quite nicely. Had I looked poorer, I think she would have said £20, as it was, £30 was pitched just right. I would not have paid £40, even though I think there is a good bit more there than £40 worth.

Quite a few new-to-us figures, including some of the Peppa Pigs that our fat leader was banging on about the other day (about which there is an amusing piece in today's FT. See reference 2). Probably fakes, but they sit on the Duplo bricks quite nicely. Quite a few new-to-us vehicles, things like tractors and fire engines, but still plenty of regular bricks, the staple of proper Duplo play.

There were also some electrical fakes, with connections running up through the prongs, which looked as if they could be used to put lighted spires on top of towers. Needless to say, the battery containing power units were made in China. To be investigated.

Most of it is now heading for a pillow slip in the washing machine, after which I shall have a grand sort out, working the new batch into what we have already. Probably already had our £30 worth, never mind the intended targets. And we should not now have any trouble making a tower which reaches the extension ceiling - and stays there.

PS: memory failure again. If anyone had asked when the last Barnardo coup was, I think I would have gone for a much earlier date than the end of October. Probably not August, but quite probably September.

References 

Reference 1: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2021/11/fake-133.html.

Reference 2: Along for the ride at Boris Johnson Land: Welcome to the wildly optimistic world of the British prime minister - Robert Shrimsley, FT - 2021.

Folk at the Temple

Back to the Temple last week for what was billed as 'Die schhöne Müllerin' and the Alehouse Sessions. For what may be BH's last evening outing for a while, having been rather put off by the poor standard of mask wearing in London in the dark.

Two entertainments on the train. First, four very important people - both men and women - with suits and briefcases, possibly returning from some expedition to the interior, carried on a rather loud conversation all the way to Waterloo. All I can remember of it is the lady explaining that despite starting at 06:00 or some such hour, was proposing to dine in Mayfair at 20:00. Long time since I was good for that sort of day. Second, three ladies, one older, possibly the mother of one of them. A long rather than loud conversation about cuddling dogs or not. Do you let them sleep on your bed at night? I associated to the couple noticed at reference 3. While, when we had got home, BH explained that if you wanted to be in charge of your dog, rather than the other way around, letting the dog upstairs was a very bad plan. 

Got off at the right stop in Fleet Street, that is to say the Royal Courts of Justice, and found our way to the Temple quite quickly on this second occasion - having armed ourselves both with the map reproduced at reference 1 and a print of the surrounding roads and alleys from gmaps.

While we picnic'd outside, we admired the old-style lights, which on closer inspection each contained four small gas mantles - or at least that was what they looked like. The trusty in the hall - I think a uniformed porter in the way of some universities - explained that they were the real thing, they really were gas lights. While I am sure I remember from a P. D. James novel about dodgy lawyers that they had been discontinued. Perhaps it was the lighting up man that had been discontinued, in favour of something electrical, rather than the lights themselves.

Some of the newer brown wood to be found inside. In other parts of the building, some of it was a good deal older, maybe 500 years older. And a good deal browner. Plus some of the giant hinges you get at Hampton Court Palace.

The hall was crowded, mostly with people who wouldn't bother with the Wigmore Hall but who would turn out for what turned out to be a folk group rather than a chamber ensemble. There may well have been a Lewisham connection. Standard of mask wearing poor.

So for the Schubert, we had a folk band instead of a piano, a narrator, various additions and a large puppet. The baritone assisted with the puppet at the same time as singing. All very clever, and it did bring out the narrative line but much of the magic of  the version we know was lost. But it was good to be reminded of the beginnings of these songs, with Viennese salons being rather more free and easy places than the solemn concert halls we have got used to since.

With this particular song cycle being built on a story which had a long and varied history in Central Europe. A story which might be played out in parts in said salons. With the author of the present poems, Müller, given his name, generally getting lumbered with the role of the miller's apprentice.

The production included parallel text surtitles projected onto the black cloth behind the stage. I thought that this worked rather well, but probably would not play at the Wigmore where the stage is in light, rather than in dark.

The second half included some good bits, but went on for far too long and would have been much better suited to a public house. The sort of thing that used, for example, to play in the back bar in the Devonshire on Balham High Road. I remember that quite a few houses in that part of London have large back bars, well adapted to that sort of thing.

To the point that by the time we got out I was rather cross. Quite surprised at myself really. I had tried playing the alphabet game with countries, but that had not done any good. Nor could we have left early without making a bit of a disturbance. Which would not have been fair: I should have been more careful about the programme and there were plenty of people there who thought it was all great.

The half moon was high in the clear night sky. My first London evening sighting of the moon for some years.

A young lady gave up her seat on the No.76 so that we could sit together while the bus went round the Aldwych what seemed the wrong way. Plenty of road works in progress, so perhaps the southern leg is being pedestrianised.

Few masks and some young ladies in full war paint at Waterloo. I consoled myself with half a bottle of Bells from Whistletop (by Platform 1) - rather expensive but it did calm me down, starting with a covert swig behind the bike shed, followed by a couple of not so covert swigs on the train. There was even some left to polish off over the next few days.

As it turned out, we were sat next to our three ladies again. Who had been to the Lloyd Webber version of Cinderella, which they thought was great. And as is all too often the case with me, I got on with them far better than I had thought likely at the outset. A source of much error over the years.

I think at a place called the Gillian Lynne Theatre in Drury Lane, possibly owned and operated by the Lloyd Webber vehicles Really Useful Theatre Company and LW Theatres. A place which we learned included revolving stage, with the revolving including some of the seats, which seemed odd. A place which I last past on the occasion noticed at reference 4.

For the first time in a long time, fifth in the queue for taxis on arrival at Epsom. And the chap behind us had one shoe falling apart, and in the absence of a roll of duct tape, he would not be walking home. So we did, several taxis coming down station approach as we went up. But we needed the walk and we got a further sighting of the moon, which now seemed to be more or less overhead.

It being a breading baking day, fresh bread on arrival, by way of a snack. Batch No.632. Maybe another swig. Then cracked out our record of Fischer-Dieskau and Moore doing the miller's daughter - a phrase which does not fit nearly as well as müllerin - to hear what the café flavoured effort matured into. To bed well past midnight, most unusual for me.

We thought afterwards that this was all part of the accessibility drive, also visible at the Wigmore Hall. A rather desperate effort to involve younger people in the fading world of classical music. Fading, that is, in so far as getting audiences to live performances is concerned. Think how the South Bank used to do classical in three halls, more or less seven nights a week. At least that is how I remember it from fifty years ago. Perhaps I exaggerate.

Programme notes by our baritone, Thomas Guthrie, included for future reference. More likely to be able to find them here than popped into a bookcase somewhere.

Hopefully he wouldn't mind if he knew.

PS: while playing the alphabet game with countries in the Hall, I varied thing a bit by trying to vary the countries, easy enough as most letters are represented by two or more countries. But I got stuck on Honduras for 'H'. Nothing else would come to mind. But I was pleased the following morning when Haiti and Hungary turned up.

References

Reference 1: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2021/11/to-temple.html. The first temple.

Reference 2: https://www.barokksolistene.com/barokksolistene-2/. The band.

Reference 3: http://pumpkinstrokemarrow.blogspot.com/2012/05/up-north.html.

Reference 4: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2021/11/penalty-fare.html.

Reference 5: http://www.thomasguthrie.com/about/. The baritone.

Exercise

I shall spend a little time this morning trying to work out what I have done to attract an email from Dyna-Bands. I am, it seems, allowed to buy a maximum of three at a 30% discount, with this very special offer expiring at the end of the month. Maybe it is Black Friday today.

I think it extremely unlikely that I will ever do anything like the lady snapped above, in private, let alone anywhere else - although it may be that BH gets up to this sort of thing in one of her health and fitness classes. Contrariwise, there is very little trace of those activities online; so very little for the the Dyna-Band people to bite on.

Bing and Amazon seem to know all about these bands.

PS: perfectly simple explanation: it seems that I bought one of these things for BH, some years ago now. I probably never saw it out of its wrapping, although I have now. Bright green strip of something rubbery. Not joined up, so this particular model couldn't be used for the exercise above. One supposes that everyone who ever bought one of these things online now has an email...

References

Reference 1: https://www.dynaband.co.uk/.

Thursday, 25 November 2021

Trolley 447

Back home with the creationists in East Street. This time a large trolley from the M&S Food Hall, or at least large by their standards.

Trundled back down East Street, through the town and into the Ashley Centre. I'm getting better at negotiating blind bumps with wheels, with the trick being to go in at the edge, thus minimising contact of wheels with bumps, while still getting the benefit of the ramp and so not having to lift the wheels.

PS: I noticed yesterday that at least some Waitrose trolleys are made by Wanzl. Didn't think to check this one today.

References

Reference 1: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2021/11/trolley-446.html.

Reference 2: https://www.wanzl.com/en_GB.

Reference 3: https://psmv4.blogspot.com/search?q=wanzl. For lots more Wanzl. It seems they have a pretty good grip on the big supermarkets. Much get onto Lidl and Aldi; maybe they are different.

Trolley 446

For a change from the Sainbury's trolleys one usually gets there, a Waitrose trolley from the creationists' accommodation block in East Street. Somebody else must have dealt with the two Sainsbury's trolleys that were there last time I passed.

I was impressed by the large yellow pipe left, presumably something to do with heating or air conditioning.

And I was rewarded with a £1 coin from the handle lock when I returned the trolley to Waitrose.

For a change, I headed up South Street, past a new branch of the baker we use from time to time in Craddocks Avenue in Ashtead. A street which struggles a bit given all the traffic and it will be interesting to see how they do. From reference 2 it seems that there was a change of ownership and or management in 2019, which I had not known about. All the more reason to take a closer look. 

There is also another new bakery shop at the East Street end of Ewell Village. Another one to be investigated. Sadly, the main business of bakeries these days seems to be cakes and sandwiches, rather than bread, so I don't suppose the large white loaves will be anything special. Nothing like those which were fairly easy to get fifty years ago.

Onto the White Horse now the Lava Lounge, where I saw a claim that it had been founded in 1712. The building certainly looks quite old. A place I used occasionally when it was the White Horse, presumably the watering hole for the medicos and others from the hospital next door, back in the days when it was thought OK for such people to smoke and drink a great deal.

Back home, off to the Scottish map service, where I find that the White Horse was certainly there in the middle of the 19th century. The same map also shows a brewery, somewhere handy to where Rosebery Park is now. A park named for the chap who was PM towards the end of the 19th century. While in the middle of the same century, I suppose every self respecting town had at least one brewery and every village a maltster (as is to be found in 'Far from the Madding Crowd').

While I think the workhouse just below the White Horse has long gone, but occupied the site which Guild Living now wants to use for a high rise senior complex. See reference 4. No doubt the heritage people are working themselves into a lather about it. Which reminds me that some of them were hanging about the empty building at the bottom of Station Approach, clutching paperwork, which a developer wants to demolish in order to move the debate on a bit. The gable roundels are, I read somewhere, of special interest. Not doubt a shame to lose both gable and roundels, but there is a limit to how much old stuff we can cope with. Councils just as much as the homes of seniors.

Back at the White Horse, I had intended to cross over the railway line and head for home up Stamford Green Road, past the Coopers and the Cricketers. But I took the wrong turning, passing to the east of Rosebery School, passing a great many houses and ending up outside Enterprise Cars. No new Wellingtonias, but noticing on the way that the large building which was once the home of the British Legion Club is now home to a substantial nursery - so providing facilities for working mums has become more important than providing cheap booze for old codgers. Times are changing. See reference 3.

So not lost, but not quite where I intended to be.

References

Reference 1: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2021/11/trolley-445.html.

Reference 2: https://www.craddocksbakery.com/.

Reference 3: https://www.shapesdaynursery.co.uk/.

Reference 4: https://www.guildliving.com/.

Wednesday, 24 November 2021

Second oxtail of the 2021-2022 season

With the first having been early in September, noticed at reference 1. I suppose what it really boils down to is my being in the butcher when he happens to have got some in. I'm not aware of much forward planning.

Arrives in the same black foam tray wrap as last time.

Much the same recipe as last time, with the addition of a couple of tablespoons of cooked brown rice and a stray half stick of celery, sliced crosswise, that is to say across the grain. One large onion, one medium and one half. Half a pint of water. This snap being timed at 07:48, just before it went into the pre-heated oven at 100°C.

Drained at 16:15. Liquor put aside. Mushrooms added at this point. Eaten at 17:00 with crinkly cabbage (lightly cooked) and mash.

Taken with the white wine from Sicily bought on the outing noticed at reference 2. We thought it rather good, but you can read all about it from the horse's mouth at reference 3.

Not much left, half an hour later. So not a particularly cheap meal, with the oxtail coming in at around £18.

With blackberry and apple doing very well for dessert after what was a fairly heavy main course. The rest of the wine, visible right, had gone by close.

A fine, reliable dinner. Good for anyone with a taste for meat, not bothered by plenty of bone. With thanks to the cook at what used to be the Wheatsheaf in South Lambeth Road for introducing me to the dish. A place which had acquired a Latin American flavour, probably Brazilian, which would fit with the Portuguese colony in the area. The occasion being noticed at reference 4, the present presence at the place at reference 5.

Maybe next time I will try the salad, beans and rice instead of our boiled vegetables.

The following morning, scraped the thin layer of soft, white fat off the firm, pale brown jelly that the rest of the liquor had set to. Left over mash on top. Covered and into the fridge against gravy a few days following. A rather good gravy, even though I say it myself.

PS: Nozze d'Oro was fiftieth anniversary wine in our fiftieth anniversary year. Very appropriate.

References

Reference 1: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2021/09/oxtail.html.

Reference 2: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2021/11/facts-not-opinions.html.

Reference 3: https://www.tascadalmerita.it/en/wine/nozze-doro/.

Reference 4: http://pumpkinstrokemarrow.blogspot.com/search?q=wheatsheaf+oxtail.

Reference 5: https://tiamarialondon.com/.

New world earthworks

I learn this morning about a large earthwork, something more than 3,000 years old, in northeastern Louisiana. Sufficiently important to score as a world heritage site - and to think that I had never heard of it before. Perhaps there was enough to do keeping track of all the earthworks in and around the hills of the southwest of this country.

In the snap taken from gmaps above, the brown patch middle left is the 70 feet high mound known to Wikipedia, and no doubt others, as Mound A. While the half circles to its right, suggesting an auditorium focused on the blue marker, were once much more prominent. Perhaps we could ask Google to fly over again next time there is a drought, or whatever it is that makes these things more visible.

It seems that there has been a flurry of activity about all this in the media, including a piece in Nature, but the article at reference 2 has the advantage of being free.

It also seems that some engineers are waxing lyrical about the deep knowledge of large earth mounds exhibited by the builders. We are told that building durable earth mounds is nothing like as easy as you might think.

Plenty of debate about what is was all for. Just as there is about the ancient earthworks over here.

While Wikipedia offers something a bit more intelligible than an aerial photograph.

PS: the world heritage people were not terribly helpful. They offered lots of downloadable documents about this site, but they were not properly labelled, so it was impossible to pull out anything useful. Perhaps if I had taken a bit more trouble, I would have found my way around.

References

Reference 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_Point.

Reference 2: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/ancient-native-americans-were-incredible-engineers-180978605/. The freebie.

Reference 3: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02439-0. The paywalled.

The p-value battle continues

After my brief encounter with the p-value battle a couple of years ago, noticed at reference 1, I have been reminded of it by the piece in Science News, detailed at reference 2. And have been moved to read the first half of the paper at reference 3 rather more carefully. Which led me to references 4 – which suited me best of all – and reference 5.

Serious statisticians, psychologists and others have been waging a battle against careless use of p-value significance tests for some decades now. But that battle is far from won, if the letter to Nature a couple of years ago, detailed at reference 5 is anything to go by.

The battleground

P-values is all about the tails of distributions, usually assumed to be normal. The motivation is that values of a random variable with a known distribution are unlikely to be extreme, that is to say on the far right in the figure above, so if the value is very extreme it is likely that we have got the distribution wrong – that is to say, in this case, that we have got the hypothesis wrong. A motivation which is not altogether unreasonable, but all too often poorly founded. It is this poor foundation which is the battleground.

Such p-values might be one tailed, as shown above, or two tailed.

P-values of 0.05 – corresponding to one chance in twenty – are often thought to be sufficiently extreme for these purposes – in which case the statistic concerned is said to be significant.

There is some useful historical background to the use of p-values at reference 2. Which is also from where the figure above has been taken.

Colquhoun

I have now spent a bit of time with the author of references 3 and 4, one David Colquhoun, a retired eminence from UCL; not a statistician, but someone who has spent serious time on statistical matters – and, as it happens, on another long campaign against alternative medicine. I dare say, with a pharmacology background, he is a strong believer in medicines having active ingredients if they are to provide anything more than temporary relief. You can read all about him at reference 6.

While I think I can say that I now know more about the p-value problem than I ever did before – although it does not do to be too definite about what one might have forgotten over the years. I found (the relatively recent) reference 4 the most helpful. While for me, reference 3 was marred by a rather combative and dogmatic tone. Perhaps he thought he was justified by the slow progress.

He starts from the straightforward premise that it is not a good idea to publish breakthroughs, in one’s haste to climb the slippery pole of academe, only to have them rubbished or otherwise falsified a few months later. And the assertion that all too many breakthroughs which are published, often in reputable, peer reviewed journals, are based on careless, not so say wrong, use of p-value significance tests. Contrariwise, maybe the grant renewal is in the bank, or the new job is in the bag, by the time one is found out.

He goes on to tell us that one way out is to opt for very low p-values, say 0.001 rather than 0.05, but the trouble with this would be that very few experiments, particularly in the murky field of fMRI, would generate significant results. One can do better.

He makes a good case for looking at false positive rates, nearly always much larger than p-values would suggest, which have a far more direct bearing on whether one’s breakthrough really is a breakthrough. One part of his case is built on analogy with the screening problem and another part of is built on a straightforward simulation of lots of trials.

The screening problem – which has become topical with COVID – involves negatives that test negative, negatives that test positive, positives which test negative and positives which test positive, with the second and third of these possibilities often providing a great deal of unwanted noise. A model which maps fairly well onto the p-value problem, with the p-value people apt to concentrate on the negatives that test positive – the false positives – to the exclusion of other considerations. And although the rate may be low, there may be a lot of them absolutely, sometimes a lot more than the true positives, giving an uncomfortably high false positive rate.

There is also a Bayes flavoured angle. P-values are about the probability of getting some result, getting some evidence, given the hypothesis, that is to say P(E|H). Whereas what we are looking for is the probability of the hypothesis given the evidence, that is to say P(H|E). To get to which we need to deploy something like Bayes’ theorem and we need to deploy some priors, in one form or another. To blithely assume that P(E|H) and P(H|E) are more or less equal, which is what, in effect, is often done, won’t do at all.

And lastly an angle which appeals to me. He argues that setting up a dichotomy between something – say a possible medicine - having no effect and having a significant effect is not helpful. This world is better regarded as continuous rather than as dichotomous. Reference 5 talks of dichotomania, a mania which is by no means confined to this particular battle. So I go for the curse of the dichotomy.

Note that he does not deny the value of p-values. He grants that they are useful evidence. His point is that they are not proof. For that, more is needed.

Conclusions

Be wary of papers using the phrase p-value. If in doubt get help!

References

Reference 1: http://psmv4.blogspot.com/2019/06/more-hard-for-me-to-know.html.

Reference 2: How the strange idea of ‘statistical significance’ was born: A mathematical ritual has led researchers astray for decades – Bruce Bower, Science News – 2021.

Reference 3: An investigation of the false discovery rate and the misinterpretation of p-values – David Colquhoun – 2014. Royal Society Open Science.

Reference 4: Why p-values can't tell you what you need to know. And what to do about it: the false positive risk - David Colquhoun - 2020. Given at the RIOT Science Club at KCL. To be found at http://www.dcscience.net/2020/10/18/why-p-values-cant-tell-you-what-you-need-to-know-and-what-to-do-about-it/

Reference 5: Scientists rise up against statistical significance: Valentin Amrhein, Sander Greenland, Blake McShane and more than 800 signatories call for an end to hyped claims and the dismissal of possibly crucial effects - Valentin Amrhein, Sander Greenland, Blake McShane and more than 800 signatories – 2019. Nature.

Reference 6: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Colquhoun

Reference 7: Lectures on Biostatistics – D. Colquhoun – 1971. Freely available for download. I was amused by the quote at the top of chapter 1, included above. And puzzled by the heading just below because trying not to make a fool of oneself also figures large in reference 3, more than 40 years later. Clearly a matter of some importance, so I shall read on.