Friday, 31 May 2024

Picoleur

Many years ago, possibly thirty years ago, I bought someone a bottle of sherry for Christmas, or some such occasion. I went to the trouble of soaking off the label provided and gluing on a copy of the label that can be seen above instead. Rather feeble humour, but it amused me at the time.

The cardboard container was a piggy bank which had been given to me at about the same time and which I used to keep all the change that I acquired in my travels around town. Change which was sometimes cashed in, sometimes converted into more or less messy and elaborate presents for children and grandchildren.

However, with the coming of the plague and the passing of most of the coin of the realm out of circulation, this does not really fly any more, and yesterday I suddenly decided that it was time to retire it. Possibly prompted, at least in part, by having found out that NatWest, unlike HSBC, still have coin eating machines in their branch at Epsom.

So yesterday, I transferred the coin to a bag and presented myself and my brother-in-law's debit card at NatWest. And with the aid of an attendant, I managed to feed nearly all my coin into a machine and credit slightly more than £100 to brother-in-law's account. I might say that the machine was rather faster than both the HSBC one which I once used in Cheapside and the Sainsbury's one which I used to use occasionally at Kiln Lane. This last being rather irritating on account of the size of the the fee deducted by Sainsbury's. While reference 1 reminds me this afternoon of the Metro Bank option which I had forgotten about.

The small amount of reject coin went into the (near empty) collecting tin at the nearby Heart Research charity shop. Oxfam seemed to have moved on, with no such tin being visible.

NatWest also had a machine which just gave you a chitty to take to the counter, rather than crediting your account, but that one was out of order.

With the result that, as things stand, I may have some explaining to do come report time with the Office of the Public Guardian, aka the Court of Protection.

In the margins, I learn that 'picoleur' is not a word known to Littré, although it is known to at least some of the translation aids available on the Internet. As I understand it, more or less equivalent to 'boozer', usually derogatory as in 'he's a bit of a boozer'. Not a word that I have come across recently either as it happens. Don't think it is in Simenon's repertoire.

Also that the bottom of the cardboard container, a bit of thin steel plate, was much more firmly attached to the cardboard above than one might have thought likely or possible. It resisted being bashed out with a quite substantial bit of timber - and in the end I had to cut it off. Cardboard now in its recycling bin, steel plate now in its recycling bucket.

PS: just been reading about China's claim to most of the massive stretch of water known as the South China Sea, that is to say what is enclosed by the green dashed line in the right hand map, variously known as the nine dash line, the ten dash line and the eleven dash line. Very depressing that such a big and powerful country feels the need for such aggression towards its southern neighbours. Why on earth can't they just back off and let everyone get on with their lives? Why can't they share a bit? Why on earth do they see these southern neighbours as a threat? In much the same league as another big and powerful country rather nearer to home. In this case it is all complicated by China and Taiwan fighting shoulder to shoulder on this one. To think that the Taiwanese are looking to us in the west to bale them out should push come to shove. Read all about it at reference 2.

References

Reference 1: https://psmv3.blogspot.com/2018/05/piggy-bank-machine.html.

Reference 2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine-dash_line.

Thursday, 30 May 2024

Around London Bridge

An early rendez-vous at London Bridge, so an early start. Paced down to the station by a neighbour who started about 100 metres ahead of me, a chap of much the same age as I, and I while I kept the distance, I failed to close it. All very frustrating given that I imagine I take more exercise than the chap in question.

Wanting to catch a train before 09:30, my senior railcard did not work and off-peak rates did not work. But the ticket office clerk worked out that by buying a single to London Bridge (full price) and another single back to Epsom (half price) I was not that far adrift of my usual purchase of a one day Travelcard. So for once, I economised.

Snoozed on the way, to wake at Norwood Junction. Exit, then past the mighty robot to find that there is still a left luggage office, offering much the same sort of service as ever. Google having led me to believe that left luggage had been fragmented among operators offering various mixes of lockers, space in hotels and spaces with various retailers. It had sounded all very app-full.

Allowed back onto Platform 4 to wait for the train I was meeting, part of the Thameslink service between places like Peterborough and Brighton. Where I was able to find a suitable place to sit to admire the country end.

Swinging around to my right, a modest tower with some kind of canopy on top. No idea then and no idea now what it might be for. Picture quality not great at this level of zoom either.

A bit further to the right and we had a cradle crane sticking out of the side of the Shard. How many of them does it have?

Eventually worked out where the pantographs, which I assumed would be needed north of the river, lived when the trains were south of the river.

Exit to take a snack at Olle & Steen - and to be impressed at how the town planners have succeeded in making London Bridge a place to visit. Lots of young people and holiday makers milling about. Just like Kings Cross. Kløben bun and orange juice for me. Kløben bun and something else for her.

Entertained by a very thin young man passing by in bare feet, carrying his shoes, as I recall. Not something I would care to try in central London. See reference 6 for the last such. Even more foolhardy to my mind.

Out to inspect the Belfast, from the shore that is. The naval uncle's ship during the Korean war. Somewhat diminished by an Atlas cruise ship being tied up alongside.

Possibly the trip advertised above somewhere on reference 1, the website of a cruise operation headquartered in Fort Lauderdale. Pricing a bit tricky, but maybe in the range $3,000-$7,000 per person for 10 nights. The bottom of the range is called 'Adventure Oceanview Stateroom', so you should at least get a porthole, if not a proper window for your money.

A chap in the shop told us that while the cruise ship might be tied up alongside the cruiser, the passengers were not allowed off that way. They had to get a shuttle to take them to the other side of the river where there were proper facilities for their reception.

Passed on the nearby authentic public house experience, probably the establishment at reference 2.

Passed through what used to be the warehouse, now Hays Galleria. The elaborate nautical art work all present and correct. Reference 3, however, seems to be all about commercial letting of the buildings round about and it took Wikipedia and Bing to turn up reference 4. 'The Navigators, 1987, a sculpture by David Kemp', to my mind more something for a seaside amusement park than art, even corporate art. Must have cost a bit though, in time and materials, never mind artistic endeavour. I wonder now what sort of maintenance effort it burns up? Was that part of the original deal with Mr. Kemp? He appears to have been a busy and successful sculptor, if reference 5 is anything to go by.

And so we worked our way back to Borough Market. Noticing on the way that all the sparkly new development had not completely squeezed out the graffiti people. Some sort of club, bottom right, to the left of the ice cream joint.

Market busy with tourists, a lot of whom were taking street food. Which included the paella which I would have fancied had there been some proper seating - and if I had found out from where it was being sold. Hygiene problem with leftovers notwithstanding. Smokies appeared to be missing too. We settled on a wine bar called Bedales of reference 7, stronger on wine, as it turned out, than on food.

So the wine was fine, the food was OK, more by way of a snack than a meal, chunky chips served in hot red goo  (patatas bravas) followed by ham croquettes - these last being small crumb coated spheres full of some very soft and savoury off-white goo. Complicated and insubstantial. While the service and ambience did well enough.

Brandy not really their thing, but they were able to fish this bottle out of the back of the bar somewhere, which did well enough.

But not best pleased this morning to find that they had marked the wine up by a factor of the order of ten on the price at reference 8. Which seemed a touch greedy, even for a trendy wine bar in a tourist spot. Some compensation in the form of 'haute valeur environmentale' (HVE).

Picked up some cherries at £18 for something over a kilo. Rather dear, but they did turn out very well.

The last stop was Guy's Hospital, now in partnership with St. Thomas's down the road and with some other kind of link with King's College Hospital. Presumably all part of the ongoing struggle to rationalise provision of both training and treatment in this part of London. At least it still says Guy's over the main entrance.

A second visit to the handsome chapel. Only slightly marred by some water damage in one corner of the ceiling. I suppose the chaplain has a hard time competing for funds in today's environment, the chapel not being a fee-earning part of the business.

A handsome garden courtyard. Not the sort of thing I have come across in other hospitals of my acquaintance, the nearest thing that I can think of being the rather bleak bit of garden on the Westminster Bridge side of St. Thomas's. The sort of thing that works really well in a space of this sort - but which would not work anything like as well in a suburban garden.

We do have some of these Sisyrinchium striatum in our own garden, not as many now as a few years ago, and they are just coming into flower. Nothing like as tall as the ones at Guy's though. A native, I learn this morning from reference 9, of the alpine meadows of Argentina and Chile. There used to be lots of them at the GOGGS end of the lake in St. James' Park and I think we have come across them at Wisley.

Closing with a short time out outside a plant room, oddly on view. And so back to the station for a train to Epsom, in time to take a small regular pasty to make up my lunch. Not something I take very often, but it went down well enough on this occasion.

PS 1: I thought that it would have been a nice touch if the Belfast and Guy's were to run to little stalls for old boys, so that people with a connection could chat about old times over a cup of tea, or perhaps something even stronger. I suppose Belfast old boys are getting a bit thin on the ground now, but there must be plenty of Guy's old boys (and girls) knocking about.

PS 2: oddly enough, I got stuck on searching for reference 6 today by including the word 'bare' in the search term. This being the same mistake as I made last time that I tried to find it, back in 2020. But I got there in the end.

PS 3: I noticed some young birds at reference 10. Yesterday evening, a jay emerged from the relevant bit of hedge with a large lump of something or other in its beak, which it started to consume on our back lawn before flying off with it. It must have noticed the young birds too.

References

Reference 1: https://atlasoceanvoyages.com/.

Reference 2: https://www.nicholsonspubs.co.uk/restaurants/london/thehornimanathayslondonbridge#/.

Reference 3: https://www.hays-galleria.com/.

Reference 4: https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/the-navigators-london-england.

Reference 5: https://www.davidkemp.uk.com/about/.

Reference 6: https://psmv3.blogspot.com/2017/08/the-blade.html.

Reference 7: https://www.bedaleswines.com/borough-market/.

Reference 8: https://www.cavedejurancon.com/vin-jurancon-sec-brut-ocean.html.

Reference 9: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sisyrinchium_striatum.

Reference 10: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2024/05/tweet.html.

Trolleys 693 and 694

The first of these was a now rare trolley from the creationists' accommodation block in East Street. And, unusually, an M&S trolley rather than the usual Sainsbury's.

By the time I got back to town, two more M&S trolleys had appeared in the Kokoro Passage, so the day's hail was rounded out by them.

After their return, I settled for going back over the hill, rather than going for the Screwfix underpass, let alone further afield.

To admire the gas works on Clay Hill Green, with a six inch plastic main being laid right across it - at a depth of maybe 2 feet. I would have thought rather more was needed, but no doubt they know what they are at. I also thought that laying one a run of the cast iron pipes used when I was young would have been a lot more work.

Presumably all to do with the work being done in Hookfield on the other side of West Hill.

The pipe was headed for a square chamber, which has been the subject of serious work in the past and which I has thought was to do with gas rather than water, but there were no clues that were any use to these eyes.

I think that these vents used to be at knee level, but perhaps they moved them to the stop of the pole which is centre in the chamber snap above to stop passing youth pushing stuff into them.

PS: the New York Times at least is still sending me lots of advertisements for carabiners following their mention at reference 2. They might, of course, be firing on my having visited a shopping page for same in search of a snap. Either way, quite a long time after the event.

References

Reference 1: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2024/05/trolleys-691and-692.html.

Reference 2: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2024/05/ullman.html.

Group search key: trolleysk.

Trolleys 691 and 692

The first of these two was captured outside the left hand block of flats as one approaches Epsom Station from West Hill. A medium sized trolley from the M&S food hall.

I passed the second on the way down the Kokoro Passage, but decided not to take it along as it was a different sized trolley from Waitrose rather than M&S. Came back for it instead, thus scoring two. 

Handle lock present, but got neither coin nor token when I returned it to its stack.

References

Reference 1: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2024/05/trolley-690.html.

Group search key: trolleysk.

More risk

I mentioned the current fad for risk at reference 1 - and it came up again this morning in connection with Weil's disease, properly Leptospirosis, a potentially fatal disease that can be caught from contaminated water or contact with contaminated animals, commonly rodents and in particular rats. A quick look at references 2 and 3 suggests that the risk in this country is relatively low; much more of a problem in hot, wet countries with bare feet, poor housing and poor hygiene generally. 

This all arose from BH telling me of someone writing a letter to our free newspaper (the Comet) about how awful it was that someone had let a party of school children go pond dipping at Stamford Green Pond. Didn't they know about the risk of catching Weil's disease? Seemingly, the head teacher involved put one of the school governors up to sending in a reply about risk assessments and proper precautions.

With any risk being balanced against the considerable educational value of such activities. Particularly if there is a microscope available with which to peer at all the more or less microscopic creepy crawlies to be found in the average puddle or pond.

My present point is that while the head teacher is captain of the ship and personally responsible for the safety of his or her charges, it is not reasonable for her to assess risks of this sort unaided. Nor, indeed, would it be a good use of her time. It is all far too complicated, to the point of requiring specialised, professional input. She should be able to draw on some authoritative guidance from the centre, perhaps in the first instance from her local education authority, probably ultimately from the Department of Education. Such guidance might be fairly permissive, allowing for a bit of local variation and discretion. Or, if the risk was deemed to be large, it might be very directive. You will do this, you will not do that.

All of which only works if there are central functions both competent and resourced to produce such guidance. More or less abolishing local education authorities perhaps not the answer here.

PS: I might add that I was once warned about this disease in TB, with a chap telling me not to fish around in sumps while cleaning them out - like the one which takes the rainwater on our patio - without wearing rubber gloves up to the elbows. I think he had actually known someone to catch the disease from such an activity.

References

Reference 1: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2024/05/risk.html.

Reference 2: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/leptospirosis/.

Reference 3: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leptospirosis.

Wednesday, 29 May 2024

Water melon

A day for the first water melon of the new season, taking in return of my book to the RHS library at Vincent Square on the way. It was the last day of the loan and while I dare say that renewal by phone was an option, my own copy had turned up. Once the property of the Cape Fear Community College of Wilmington, North Carolina. No loan slip stuck in the front, but there is library paraphernalia stuck in the back.

A river port city with lots of beaches. Cape Fear just above the 'G' of Google, middle bottom. A college which, according to Wikipedia has been rather dogged by scandals involving presidents. It is also large, with an annual enrollment in excess of 20,000 students. I associate to the reports some years ago of the boss of our own Nescot paying herself something north of £250,000, which seemed rather a lot at the time. I think her husband was doing quite well too.

A warm day and the country end of the country platform was occupied by two food delivery riders with their bicycles. Presumably not delivering food, so were they going off-duty or on-duty?

Dozed off to wake at Clapham Junction and to alight at Vauxhall. Pedalled off to Vincent Square to return my book. Didn't browse as that would likely have resulted in another book - when there were quite enough in the pending tray already.

Unable to get onto Vincent Square, large though it is, it seemingly being the exclusive preserve of Westminster School. Presumably they bought it (or otherwise acquired it) before the area was developed. So I sat on some steps with my bread, hard boiled eggs and water, and admired it from the wrong side of the railings. Perhaps I should have tried to get in and see if I was challenged.

After which it was time for Clapham Junction and water melon, which involved taking what seemed a very long way around Vauxhall bus station to get onto Nine Elms Lane, the low road to Clapham Junction. Where I bought a large chunk of melon from Battersea Food & Wine, a useful place where I have bought a fair bit of stuff over the years.

Augmented by some magazines from Raynes Park.

And a little later. The melon was very good, and only lasted a matter of a day or so. My favourite kind of melon. With melons being very much the thing at the moment - a bit of under-the-counter-water to counter my low fluid regime, which can be a bit tiresome when one is hot or busy.

PS: not for the first time I wondered about the Schmidt kitchen showroom next to Epsom Station (reference 5). I imagine that their stuff is expensive - a lot more expensive than Howdens where we got our kitchen from - and that seemed dear enough - and I have never seen anyone there. Whatever does the salesman do with himself all day? Does HQ send him a whole lot of clerical work over the wire to keep him busy? How long will they hold out? Contrariwise, I don't suppose they pay a great deal of rent, with the the previous occupiers, as I recall, not having done very well. Maybe the problem is that all the posh people with money turn the other way out of the station.

References

Reference 1: Guide to flowering plant families - Wendy B. Zomlefer - 1994. University of North Carolina Press, Chapel Hill.

Reference 2: https://cfcc.edu/

Reference 3: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Fear_Community_College.

Reference 4: https://www.nescot.ac.uk/.

Reference 5: https://home-design-schmidt.uk/showrooms/epsom/.

Piano 85

Piano 85 was captured in use near the entrance to Ealing Broadway Station, a large, flashy and handsome construction just off the High Street. Or perhaps the Broadway. Presumably as in the Broad, in Oxford.

From Parker of Bishopsgate, seemingly the first piano of this name.

Search for Parker turns up the oddly truncated image left above. Not at all clear what if any relation there is to the right hand Parker. Or, indeed, whether my Parker was just a shop who put his stickers on the pianos he sold, or whether he actually made them, perhaps in some factory further east than Bishopsgate.

Sadly, it is clear from reference 2, that I am very much a beginner in the matter of piano names. Perhaps I had better stick to trolleys, where one serious manufacturer - Wanzl - seems to have a very large chunk of the market. While for the really serious reader, there is reference 3. From the body of which I turn up just 8 mentions of Parker, mostly to do with a piano maker called Thomas Parker, possibly once a Broadwood man, who appears to have died in 1830.

References

Reference 1: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2024/05/piano-84.html.

Reference 2: https://www.pianohistory.info/.

Reference 3: Exposing the London piano industry workforce (c. 1765-1914) - Kent, Marie E - 2013. To be found at https://repository.londonmet.ac.uk/7399/. With the appendices, weighing in at more than 600 pages.

Group search key: pianosk.

Tuesday, 28 May 2024

Tweet

For the first time this season, the bird feeder on the patio has seen visible activity. Mainly great tits and robins, but BH claims the odd sparrow too. Sometimes feeding from the feeder itself, sometimes hoovering up on the table and on the paving below. With squirrels and pigeons joining in this last.

We suspect a mixture of parents and fledglings from the hedge to the left, to the south, as we look out of the kitchen window.

I remember this morning about once reading that one should not feed garden birds in the summer as they need to learn to forage for themselves while conditions are easy, but I don't know how quickly I am going to take the feeder down. The birds need some help in their struggle against all the cats!

Then up to read at reference 1 of a crisis in the orange industry. I had thought the oranges we eat had come from a variety of places, the Mediterranean, the Middle East and various places beyond that, but it seems that Brazil now dominates global trade, with Florida having taken a battering from weather and disease. California and its orange groves were not mentioned. But Brazil is having its troubles too now and orange futures have climbed to unprecedented levels.

Maybe a lot more oranges go to the juice market than the fruit market. In any event, with weak supplies, the juice makers are struggling to blend the right sort of flavour at the moment. Whereas from my corner, the issue is the unreliability of oranges from Sainsbury's, which sometimes go through bad patches and in any case seem to vary a good deal, even within the one purchase.

Indulging in a bit of digging, apart from various gambling and share dealing sites which the search key 'orange trade' seems to turn up, I get to references 2, 3 and 4. From FAO, Bulgaria and Ghana respectively. The first offers lots of primary statistics, the second some economic analysis and the third the situation in Ghana, big in oranges in Africa.

The snap above comes from Bulgaria, and while Brazil might be the biggest single producer, there are plenty of others. And then production is not the same as processing, is not the same as trading. Has the FT got it right? Do Brazil and the US with 28% of world production between them, dominate the trade in the way that the FT article would suggest? 

I remember reading quite recently that one of the advantages of global trade in wheat was that it all tends to balance out across the world. Bad harvests in one area are balanced by good harvests in another. Then, on the other hand, if your banana production is heavily concentrated in just one cultivar, and that falls prey to some new pest or disease, where does that leave you? For which see reference 5: a very important banana, named for an English duke.

All a problem for someone else.

PS: I wonder if President Putin is an expert on bananas, telling his lieutenants all they need to know about them - or does he trust some suit? Trust and delegation being something that dictators tend to be a bit short on.

References

Reference 1: Orange juice crisis prompts search for alternative fruits: Bad weather and disease in Brazil have pushed futures prices to a record high - Susannah Savage, Financial Times - 2024.

Reference 2: https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/4760a5b5-f3b2-41c7-8713-ccdb1a5f8c08/content.

Reference 3: https://agrojournal.org/28/02-01.pdf.

Reference 4: https://iiap.info/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/iiap_guest_policy_brief_LW_Ghana_final.pdf.

Reference 5: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana.

Around phobias

An excursion which was kicked off by a table about phobias in the context of a discussion about the place of snakes in our world, in the context of the book about venom noticed at reference 1.

From there I was pointed to reference 2, of which I failed to turn up a free copy. I failed to turn up much in the way of statistics about the incidence of phobias in populations at large and I failed to get to grips with the large WHO website. So I let the matter rest.

But then I was sent, seemingly quite by chance, a copy of the paper at reference 3 about blood, injury, and needle fears and phobias. So I thought I would give it a go. 

After noting various problems with previous work, the authors explains that they wanted to investigate the route by which medical/blood/injury/injection phobias came to be, starting with a sample of around 1,000 US students. Were any phobias they found among them the result of conditioning by bad experience, by vicarious observation or by verbal information?

They started with a pool of 933 subjects and screened that down to 247 for interview. The results for the 128 fearful students made up the body of the paper. Screening included a number of questionnaires, one of them the Mutilation Questionnaire (MQ). I wanted to know what this questionnaire looked like and how it worked, but despite extensive digging failed to turn one up, although I did turn up a self-help chap, one Dr. Karl Albrecht, who tells me that the fear of mutilation is one of five basic fears: ‘… the fear of losing any part of our precious bodily structure; the thought of having our body's boundaries invaded, or of losing the integrity of any organ, body part, or natural function. Anxiety about animals, such as bugs, spiders, snakes, and other creepy things arises from fear of mutilation’. Which seems to cast a rather wider net than is needed here.

I had more luck with comparable questionnaires about snakes (SNAQ) and spiders (SPQ), both of which are the objects of common phobias and eventually, found my way to reference 4, which actually appended a copy of a short versions of both.

It seems that a common format for these screening questionnaires is a list of questions which require a yes-no answer, the subjects being told to choose the one of the two which is the nearest for them. By way of example, one of the spider questions was: ‘I would not go down to the basement to get something if I thought there might be spiders down there’. To which one might think that it all depended, but the idea is choose the best fit from yes-no, preferably without thinking too much about it. A simple scoring algorithm would then be to count the number of yes answers and to screen by setting a threshold. Those above the threshold have a problem with spiders.

And I found lots of work that has been done on statistical aspects of this approach, used in all kinds of health screening questionnaires. Including, for example, something called item response theory. Also including reference 5 which deals with ordinal dominance graphs and receiver operating characteristic graphs – these last originating many years ago in the world of signal processing – more precisely among radar engineers at the beginning of the second world war. Was that bleep a battleship or a bumboat? Or nothing at all?

I found the ordinal dominance graphs a rather attractive business, an attractive approach to the analysis of linked pairs of random variables. 

In terms of the definition above, such a graph is a trace as the variable c runs from minus infinity to plus infinity from bottom left of the unit square (0, 0) to top right (1, 1). But a trace which is constrained to increase; no dipping is allowed. So in the snap above, not the trace sketched bottom right. While that in the middle of the top row says that for every value of c, P(X ≤ c) = P(Y ≤ c). Which does not assert the equality of X and Y, but it is, nevertheless, quite a strong condition; for many purposes they can be thought of as equal.

The paper goes on to discuss the relationship between continuous distributions and finitely discrete distributions and then to discuss the significance of various common shapes and forms. And then the significance of the area above the curve – equal to the probability that Y > X – and the link to receiver operating characteristic graphs, widely used in this sort of statistics. Perhaps the people in what was then called the Government Social Survey and with whom I once had occasional dealings knew all about them – I certainly did not.

I then moved back to reference 3 and it slowly dawned on me that the point of these questionnaires was that, given that most people with phobias don’t declare them to the medical authorities and even fewer get treated – this despite treatment being reasonably effective, we don’t have much idea how prevalent they are and some sort of screening questionnaire which could be widely deployed would be useful.

I then went back to reference 4 where, as mentioned above, I got a copy of a short version of the snake questionnaire, short and easy enough to be included in a battery of same to be used in screening a good size population.

I might say that while questions of this sort might work, in the surveys I do for YouGov, which include a lot of them, I find them rather irritating, even though I sort of understand that they might work. If I am asked a question which interests me, some large part of me wants to answer properly, for the person asking to pay attention to what I think about the matter in question. For me not to be reduced to some straw in the wind, one straw among thousands of others. While if am asked a question which does not interest me, for example to rate my view of some financial services brand I have barely heard of on a five-point Likert scale, I will click through if that is allowed. And if too much of it is forced on me, I will just abandon ship. I perhaps ought to add, that snake phobia questionnaires do interest me – they are among the questions that I do want to answer properly.

From there, back to the matter of prevalence, where I am not sure I am going to do better than the table that I started with back at reference 1. But I do learn from reference 7 that blood, injection and injury apart, the incidence of phobias is about twice as high in women as in men.

While the snap above is taken from a survey, taken just after reunification, of young women in Dresden, reported at reference 6, suggesting a lifetime prevalence of phobias of more than 10%. A result drawn from the 2,000 odd respondents of an initial sample of more than 5,000 – and one might suppose that people with some kind of mental disorder were more likely to respond than those without. There will be interest and motivation. Nor do I yet understand the ‘N’ figures at the top of the table.

The point being that in the population at large, phobias are a significant cause of distress, significant enough to be worth bothering a bit more about. And in the case of medically flavoured phobias, significant more for the things they make one avoid than in themselves.

It was also good to be reminded that fancy statistics are usually about real problems, in this case finding out how many people have this or that phobia. A connection with the real world which was missing from my undergraduate forays into statistics and a gap which not subsequently filled by my stint as a government statistician, in a part of government where statistics was more like accounting than the sort of statistics you might do, for example, in an agricultural research station.

Classification

Looking at tables like that snapped above from Dresden took me onto the question of catalogue and classification, to the world of DSM and ICD, with our own NHS chipping in with reference 9. With DSM being the US version of the mental disorders part of ICD, the International Classification of Diseases, which comes from WHO. And with my effort at catalogue snapped above serving to remind me how difficult it is to arrive at something nice and tidy – and agreed by all. And then there is reference 10, which includes a very long list of phobias.

The serious classifiers at DSM and ICD prefer a short list, this perhaps reflecting both the significance of phobias in the health world at large and the fact the treatment for many of the specific phobias is much the same. It does not make all that much difference to treatment whether someone is terrified by cocker spaniels or dachshunds – although, of course, it makes a big difference to the person concerned. 

The medical and mental part of ICD 11 (CDDR) is covered at reference 7, while the statistical part (MMS) is covered at reference 8, this last seemingly only in browser form just presently.

With the relevant summary page from CDDR being snapped above. Phobias get just three sub-headings among other anxiety and fear-related disorders, with a fairly widely cast agoraphobia being separated out from the rest. With the snakes and spiders being among the specific phobias and fear of public speaking and blushing being among the social anxiety disorders.

What we do not have, as we have in systematics, noticed recently at reference 11, is the gold standard of the tree of life from which to derive a classification. Diseases and disorders are not like that and it is not clear to me that there can be one guiding principles of a classification of disorders. In ICD-11 there is talk of two sorts of organisation, one based on organ systems, say hearts and livers, another based on mechanisms, say cancers or bacterial infections. There is, inevitably, some tension between them, and ICD-11 tries to effect a reasonable compromise, with the second parent system allowing a certain amount of cross referencing between different ways of doing things. I suppose the good news is that we do not need as many diseases and disorders as there are species; in that sense at least the problem is a lot smaller.  

Notwithstanding which, my impression is that ICD-11 is work in progress: it is how things look today, which is not the same as they looked 30 years ago and will not be the same as they will look in 30 years time. Furthermore, maybe they are trying to extract too much out of a system of classification, maybe it has all got too big and complicated – as evidenced by the snap above. No doubt time will tell.

Fear

All this has prompted to think a little about my own fear of injections.

First, the physiological reaction, including fainting, came first. The fear of injections came later.

Second, it is not fear, not conscious fear at least, of what I might call primary matters – say fear of dirty needles, fear of contaminated products or fear of some adverse reaction in the days or weeks to come. Rather more secondary matters – say fear of going into shock, of fainting or of looking a bit feeble. The knowledge that some injections could be painful, for example the BCG injections against the once very common – and often fatal – tuberculosis that were routine when I was young. The knowledge that reactions such as going into shock or fainting might actually be dangerous came later.

BCG for bacillus Calmette-Guerin, which I do not think I ever knew before – although, digressing, unwise to be too sure about such a thing: if the memory has really gone, there will not be any traces left for reinforcement to stir up. From where I associate to all the many copies of computer files which you think you have deleted which are left lying around, quite possibly more or less for ever. Just invisible to casual inspection. The sort of thing that catches you out when you have your laptop checked over by the sort of IT specialists employed by the police.

Perhaps the object of the fear, of the phobia, has the same sort of complicated standing in psychology as the object of consciousness.

The physiological reaction nearly always comes after the event, perhaps in a few seconds, in one case as long as fifteen minutes or so. The exception that I can think of being that I sometimes get a bit queasy if there is close visibility of injections on television, something which I believe audiences in the US are keener on than audiences in the UK.

And generally speaking, I am not bothered by medical matters in general or by the sight of my own blood, at least not in the modest quantities one is apt to encounter on a day-to-day basis. Not bothered by being in an operating theatre, at least not so far, but I think I would be bothered by watching an operation in one. And I am not very keen on watching or listening my own insides. Not that keen on feeling my own pulse. From where I associate to a carpenter whom I once knew who took all that sort of thing in this stride – to the extent of nipping out to his car to get the right spanner for a bolt which the surgeon wanted to take out of his arm – but for which he had mislaid the spanner appropriate. At least, that was his story.

The Freudian angle

Moving on again, I have learned something about how you find out how much phobia there is out there and how you might record your results. I have not learned anything about how phobias are treated, beyond various hints that treatment is often successful. But I have been reminded that the Freudians and the psycho-analysts started out with phobias, with reference 12 being a report of one of Freud’s early cases. Otherwise, Little Hans and the horse phobia: a famous and controversial case with lots of commentary available on the Internet, for example the snap which opens this post - with the good news being that Little Hans, despite all this attention, went on to become a successful opera producer. While reference 13 is one of Freud’s even earlier papers.

Of present interest because the Freudians try to dig up and unpick whatever were the underlying causes of the phobia, rather than just squashing the phobia itself with therapy or pharmaceuticals, that is to say pills. One might argue about the merits of their approach – but not so easy to argue about the cost: Freudian interventions are very expensive in time and pills are cheap.

Other matters

I have been reminded in writing this post, that after the event, in this case an excursion into the world of phobias, one sometimes makes a coherent and plausible narrative, which does not bear much relation to what actually went on, which was much more chaotic. I associate to the business of writing down dreams, even quite shortly after waking, when it is all too easy to cook up a narrative which was not really there.

Conclusions

Another interesting excursion, with all kinds of interesting oddments being turned up along the way. And I do know a little more about both phobias and questionnaires than I did.

References

Reference 1: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2024/05/venomous.html.

Reference 2: Specific fears and phobias in the general population: Results from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) – Marja F. I. A. Depla, Margreet L. ten Have, Anton J. L. M. van Balkom, Ron de Graaf – 2008.

Reference 3: Acquisition of Blood, Injury, and Needle Fears and Phobias – Ronald A. Kleinknech – 1993.

Reference 4: Short Versions of Two Specific Phobia Measures: The Snake and the Spider Questionnaires – Andras N. Zsido, Nikolett Arato, Orsolya Inhof, Jozsef Janszky, Gergely Darnai – 2017.

Reference 5: The area above the ordinal dominance graph and the area below the receiver operating characteristic graph – Bamber DC. – 1975.

Reference 6: Epidemiology of specific phobia subtypes: Findings from the Dresden Mental Health Study – Eni S. Becker, Mike Rinck, Veneta Türke, Petra Kause, Renee Goodwin, Simon Neumer, Jürgen Margraf – 2007.

Reference 7: Clinical descriptions and diagnostic requirements for ICD-11 mental, behavioural and neurodevelopmental disorders (CDDR) - WHO – 2024.

Reference 8: ICD-11 for Mortality and Morbidity Statistics (MMS) – WHO – 2023. 

Reference 9: https://classbrowser.nhs.uk/ICD-10-5TH-Edition/vol1/block-f40-f48.htm

Reference 10: https://www.verywellmind.com/list-of-phobias-2795453

Reference 11: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2024/05/outgroups.html

Reference 12: Analysis of a phobia in a five year old boy – S Freud – 1909. 

Reference 13: Obsessions and phobias: Their psychical mechanism and their aetiology – S Freud – 1895.

Reference 14: Little Hans: The dramaturgy of phobia: On Freud's couch – Johan Norman – 1998/2020. One source of the opening snap. Provenance of the text uncertain.

Trolley 690

A medium sized M&S trolley, captured in the Kokoro Passage, on return from an expedition to London. Tucked in behind a wall and it could not be seen from the top of the passage, from Station Approach, and I almost passed on. But for some reason I did not and turned onto the ramp.

The food hall was fairly quiet, this being about half an hour before it closed. The trolley stack, however, was busy.

A misleading sign outside the front entrance. Read the small print and you find a bogoff not a freebie.

I wondered whether the nearby Waitrose was still doing free coffee. And then it struck me that, like paying for parking, free coffee seems to get people more excited than the amount of money involved seems to warrant. Maybe I will get to join in now that I am taking rather more coffee than I ever have before.

PS: this morning's wonder being whether we shall celebrate trolley 700. Trolley 600 was celebrated with a pork feast sourced from Ben the Butcher - plus a Trolley de Triomphe. Readers are invited to speculate what that might have been.

References

Reference 1: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2024/05/trolley-689.html.

Reference 2: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2023/12/trolley-600.html.

Group search key: trolleysk.

Monday, 27 May 2024

Wellingtonia 111

Wellingtonia 111 was a twin trunk specimen captured in Walpole Park at Ealing Broadway. The result of a spot of Street View browsing around possible Elizabeth Line destinations, itself the result of reports about the huge amount of traffic now being carried by the line. The massive cost and time overruns now lost to view - but presumably somebody else is carrying the resultant debt. Reference 2 strong on community and achievement, weak on finance.

Close enough to see the distinctive features of the tree. Odd how the colour drains away at close quarters.

At the limit of useful zoom. The only tree that I know with scale leaves quite like this. A Leylandii has scales, but they are organised into fronds like bracken, not like what you have above at all.

References

Reference 1: https://psmv5.blogspot.com/2024/02/wellingtonia-110.html.

Reference 2: https://mtrel.co.uk/.

Group search key: wgc.